nfl · SF @ DAL · STALE BOOK
Dak Prescott Under 273.5 Pass Yds
Hanging 273.5 (-115) vs consensus 269.5
Hard Rock Bet still on 273.5 while 3 books moved to 269.5 · gap 4 · unchanged 211m
building history
SHARP ALIGNEDPinnacle already moved to 269.5 while Hard Rock Bet still hangs 273.5. Model 268.1 vs 269.5: the move is already priced in.
Pinnacle 269.5BetMGM 269.5FanDuel 272.5Hard Rock Bet 273.5BetRivers 269.5
nfl · CAR @ NO · STALE BOOK
Chuba Hubbard Under 3.5 Rec
Hanging 3.5 (+124) vs consensus 2.5
FanDuel still on 3.5 while 3 books moved to 2.5 · gap 1 · unchanged 271m
building history
SHARP ALIGNEDPinnacle already moved to 2.5 while FanDuel still hangs 3.5. Model 2.9 vs 2.5: the move is already priced in.
Pinnacle 2.5BetMGM 2.5FanDuel 3.5Hard Rock Bet 3.5BetRivers 2.5
nfl · MIN @ GB · STALE BOOK
Kaleb Johnson Under 29.5 Rush Yds
Hanging 29.5 (-114) vs consensus 28.5
FanDuel still on 29.5 while 3 books moved to 28.5 · gap 1 · unchanged 251m
building history
SHARP ALIGNEDPinnacle already moved to 28.5 while FanDuel still hangs 29.5. Model projects 27.6 vs 28.5: the market moved the same way and still has room.
Hard Rock Bet 28.5FanDuel 29.5Pinnacle 28.5BetRivers 28.5
nfl · JAX @ TEN · STALE BOOK
Gunnar Helm Over 26.5 Rec Yds
Hanging 26.5 (-114) vs consensus 27.5
FanDuel still on 26.5 while 3 books moved to 27.5 · gap 1 · unchanged 271m
building history
SHARP ALIGNEDPinnacle already moved to 27.5 while FanDuel still hangs 26.5. Model 26.4 vs 27.5: the move is already priced in.
Pinnacle 27.5BetMGM 29.5FanDuel 26.5Hard Rock Bet 27.5BetRivers 27.5
nfl · SEA @ LV · STALE BOOK
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 88.5 Rec Yds
Hanging 88.5 (-115) vs consensus 89.5
BetMGM still on 88.5 while 3 books moved to 89.5 · gap 1 · unchanged 231m
building history
SHARP ALIGNEDPinnacle already moved to 89.5 while BetMGM still hangs 88.5. Model projects 98.4 vs 89.5: the market moved the same way and still has room.
Pinnacle 89.5BetMGM 88.5FanDuel 88.5Hard Rock Bet 89.5BetRivers 89.5
nfl · BUF @ NYJ · STALE BOOK
Omar Cooper Jr. Over 35.5 Rec Yds
Hanging 35.5 (-114) vs consensus 36.5
FanDuel still on 35.5 while 3 books moved to 36.5 · gap 1 · unchanged 251m
building history
SHARP ALIGNEDModel projects 76.5 vs 36.5: the market moved the same way and still has room.
Pinnacle 37.5BetMGM 36.5FanDuel 35.5Hard Rock Bet 36.5BetRivers 36.5
nfl · BUF @ NYJ · STALE BOOK
James Cook Over 91.5 Rush Yds
Hanging 91.5 (-112) vs consensus 92.5
Pinnacle still on 91.5 while 3 books moved to 92.5 · gap 1 · unchanged 251m
building history
SHARP ALIGNEDModel projects 95.6 vs 92.5: the market moved the same way and still has room.
Pinnacle 91.5BetMGM 92.5FanDuel 91.5Hard Rock Bet 92.5BetRivers 92.5
nfl · HOU @ CLE · STALE BOOK
Harold Fannin Jr. Over 3.5 Rec
Hanging 3.5 (-149) vs consensus 4.5
Pinnacle still on 3.5 while 3 books moved to 4.5 · gap 1 · unchanged 271m
building history
PRICED INModel 4.5 vs 4.5: the move is already priced in.
Pinnacle 3.5BetMGM 4.5FanDuel 3.5Hard Rock Bet 4.5BetRivers 4.5
nfl · MIA @ IND · STALE BOOK
Deion Burks Under 2.5 Rec
Hanging 2.5 (+168) vs consensus 1.5
Pinnacle still on 2.5 while 3 books moved to 1.5 · gap 1 · unchanged 271m
building history
PRICED INModel 1.5 vs 1.5: the move is already priced in.
Pinnacle 2.5BetMGM 1.5FanDuel 2.5Hard Rock Bet 1.5BetRivers 1.5
nfl · JAX @ TEN · STALE BOOK
Wan'Dale Robinson Under 5.5 Rec
Hanging 5.5 (+138) vs consensus 4.5
Pinnacle still on 5.5 while 3 books moved to 4.5 · gap 1 · unchanged 271m
building history
PRICED INModel 4.6 vs 4.5: the move is already priced in.
Pinnacle 5.5BetMGM 4.5FanDuel 5.5Hard Rock Bet 4.5BetRivers 4.5
nfl · MIN @ GB · STALE BOOK
Justin Jefferson Over 80.5 Rec Yds
Hanging 80.5 (-110) vs consensus 81.5
Pinnacle still on 80.5 while 3 books moved to 81.5 · gap 1 · unchanged 251m
building history
NO MODEL CHECKConsensus moved past our fair line; the laggard is not a buy on that side.
Pinnacle 80.5BetMGM 81.5FanDuel 80.5Hard Rock Bet 81.5BetRivers 81.5
nfl · KC @ ATL · STALE BOOK
Travis Kelce Under 48.5 Rec Yds
Hanging 48.5 (-114) vs consensus 47.5
FanDuel still on 48.5 while 3 books moved to 47.5 · gap 1 · unchanged 251m
building history
NO MODEL CHECKConsensus moved past our fair line; the laggard is not a buy on that side.
Pinnacle 47.5BetMGM 47.5FanDuel 48.5Hard Rock Bet 48.5BetRivers 47.5
nfl · CAR @ NO · STALE BOOK
Chuba Hubbard Under 18.5 Rec Yds
Hanging 18.5 (-114) vs consensus 17.5
FanDuel still on 18.5 while 3 books moved to 17.5 · gap 1 · unchanged 271m
building history
NO MODEL CHECKConsensus moved past our fair line; the laggard is not a buy on that side.
Pinnacle 17.5BetMGM 17.5FanDuel 18.5Hard Rock Bet 18.5BetRivers 17.5
How the scout works
What counts as steam?
Inside the last 6 hours, a player prop that moved 1.5+ units (1.0+ on 3-pointers, shots on goal and receptions) or whose juice jumped 25 cents, a spread that moved 1 point, a total that moved 1.5 points, or a moneyline whose win probability shifted 5 points. Anything smaller is noise and is not listed.
What is open drift?
Steam must happen inside our rolling 6-hour window. A line that only differs from the sportsbook's opening number, with no recent velocity, is a slow multi-day drift. It is listed last under Open drift and never counted as steam.
What is a stale line?
Most books have moved to a new number while at least one sportsbook is still hanging the old one. The gap is a live price you can take before that book catches up. We only list it when three or more books are posted and a majority agree on the new number.
What do SHARP ALIGNED and OVERREACTION mean?
Each move is checked against our projection (negative-binomial / normal game-log model, injury cascades) or the exchange consensus. Sharp aligned: the market moved the same way as the model and still has room. Overreaction: the public pushed it past our fair line, which puts the other side at positive expected value.