Only moves that clear strict thresholds, each checked against our model. Stale lines are the highest-value signal: a book still hanging the old number.
nfl · SF @ DAL · STALE BOOK
STALE LINE ON FANDUEL
Javonte Williams Under 63.5 Rush Yds
Hanging 63.5 (-114) vs consensus 61.5
FanDuel still on 63.5 while 3 books moved to 61.5 · gap 2 · unchanged 26m
building history
SHARP ALIGNEDPinnacle already moved to 61.5 while FanDuel still hangs 63.5.
BetRivers 61.5BetMGM 61.5Hard Rock Bet 62.5FanDuel 63.5Pinnacle 61.5
FanDuel still on 29.5 while 3 books moved to 28.5 · gap 1 · unchanged 46m
building history
SHARP ALIGNEDPinnacle already moved to 28.5 while FanDuel still hangs 29.5. Model projects 27.6 vs 28.5: the market moved the same way and still has room.
BetRivers 28.5FanDuel 29.5Pinnacle 28.5Hard Rock Bet 28.5
Inside the last 6 hours, a player prop that moved 1.5+ units (1.0+ on 3-pointers, shots on goal and receptions) or whose juice jumped 25 cents, a spread that moved 1 point, a total that moved 1.5 points, or a moneyline whose win probability shifted 5 points. Anything smaller is noise and is not listed.
What is open drift?
Steam must happen inside our rolling 6-hour window. A line that only differs from the sportsbook's opening number, with no recent velocity, is a slow multi-day drift. It is listed last under Open drift and never counted as steam.
What is a stale line?
Most books have moved to a new number while at least one sportsbook is still hanging the old one. The gap is a live price you can take before that book catches up. We only list it when three or more books are posted and a majority agree on the new number.
What do SHARP ALIGNED and OVERREACTION mean?
Each move is checked against our projection (negative-binomial / normal game-log model, injury cascades) or the exchange consensus. Sharp aligned: the market moved the same way as the model and still has room. Overreaction: the public pushed it past our fair line, which puts the other side at positive expected value.