Line Scout
Only moves that clear strict thresholds, each checked against our model. Stale lines are the highest-value signal: a book still hanging the old number.
Inside the last 6 hours, a player prop that moved 1.5+ units (1.0+ on 3-pointers, shots on goal and receptions) or whose juice jumped 25 cents, a spread that moved 1 point, a total that moved 1.5 points, or a moneyline whose win probability shifted 5 points. Anything smaller is noise and is not listed.
Steam must happen inside our rolling 6-hour window. A line that only differs from the sportsbook's opening number, with no recent velocity, is a slow multi-day drift. It is listed last under Open drift and never counted as steam.
Most books have moved to a new number while at least one sportsbook is still hanging the old one. The gap is a live price you can take before that book catches up. We only list it when three or more books are posted and a majority agree on the new number.
Each move is checked against our projection (negative-binomial / normal game-log model, injury cascades) or the exchange consensus. Sharp aligned: the market moved the same way as the model and still has room. Overreaction: the public pushed it past our fair line, which puts the other side at positive expected value.